#Endsars 2020 protest: Its impact on the economy
A public affairs analyst, Oluwatosin Francis Shoga, writes on the economic disruption protests may cause but stresses the need to address the issues, engage in meaningful dialogue and better educate citizens on the Tinubu Administration’s programmes and policies.
Those calling for the “End Bad Government” protest should reconsider, as it will only lead to further economic devastation and undermine the government’s current efforts to address youth concerns. The government has made significant strides in addressing these concerns, including disbanding SARS and establishing judicial panels of inquiry to investigate incidents of police brutality.
Furthermore, the government has implemented various economic policies and initiatives to address the economic disaffection of young people. These include establishing the National Youth Investment Fund, the Creative Industry Initiative, and the Nigeria Youth Employment Action Plan.
Participating in the “End Bad Government” protest will undermine these efforts and create economic uncertainty and instability. It will discourage foreign investors and hinder the country’s economic growth and development. Moreover, it will further harm Nigerians businesses, many of which are still struggling to recover from the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the previous EndSARS protest. Recovery will be very difficult for many of them, and some may not survive.
Therefore, it is essential to work with the government to address our concerns and support reforms and initiatives that promote economic growth and development. We must engage in dialogue with the government and find constructive solutions to our problems rather than resorting to destructive protests that will only set us back. While the EndSARS protest has highlighted the challenges facing Nigerian youth, it is crucial to approach the situation with caution and consider the potential consequences of our actions. We must work together to build a better future for ourselves and future generations.
Impact of #EndSARS protest
The protests were sparked by the disregard with which the Nigerian governments treat the lives of youths, attracting attention from both local and international communities. This essay is divided into two main parts. The first part argues that the economic disaffection of young people is due to the failure of government interventions designed ostensibly to empower them. The second part contends that the EndSARS protests were a great disservice to Nigeria, as a country capable of becoming a pivotal force in global economics.
As young people continue to notice a dichotomy between the resources dedicated to building industries and investment in their employment, the recurrence of the protest cannot be ruled out. The immediate trigger of the protests is bad governance, failure of the state to meaningfully address youth unemployment, and official lawlessness. The protests grew even more extensive as they received endorsements from various interest groups from different regions, where this biological category of the Nigerian state once countenanced incessant demand for secession. The international community followed up on the protests and gave it attention because of the commercial concentration on the Nigerian market of so much capital.
This essay takes a non-conformist standpoint by questioning the assumptions that the Nigerian youth are poor. It contends that the failure of interventions such as Nigerdelta, Youwin, Sure-p, Bank of industry, Bank of agriculture, and CBN programs to produce middle-class business people years after their launch represents an empirical direction to youth dissatisfaction.
Nigerian is characterized by a volatile security situation and high levels of political and economic inequality, creating social divisions between the ruling elite and ordinary citizens. This has fueled protests and social movements. In recent history, only a few demonstrations have mobilized as broad a coalition of support as the EndSARS protest, which started on October 8, 2020, in response to widespread outcry about the highhandedness and brutality of the Nigerian Police Force’s Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). SARS was a unit of the Nigerian Police Force created in 1992 to address the spate of organized and violent crimes committed by armed bandits, popularly referred to as “armed robbers”.
The Nigerian police saw SARS as an opportunity to legally violate the human rights of ordinary citizens because, in the eyes of the police, the social status of every ordinary Nigerian automatically made them a suspect and, therefore, fair game. Over time, SARS degenerated to become no different from the criminals they were designed to deter and apprehend. However, the story of SARS was just the catalyst for a citizens’ revolt against government inaction at all levels to tackle a wide range of issues making Nigerian life hazardous.
Triggers of the protest
The #EndSARS protests did not just start unceremoniously. It is essential to situate these protests within the historical wrangling, agitations, and dissension that have bedeviled the Nigerian polity since its inception. Several events led to the #EndSARS protest.
Nigeria operates a carceral democracy where security outfits are used as instruments of coercion or repression. The trust, respect, and satisfaction with citizen services by the Nigeria Police Force have deteriorated for decades. According to Amnesty International, between January 2017 and 2020, the Federal Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) was involved in torturing or other ill-treatment of over 82 persons. This and other maladministration carried out by the police and other security agencies riled the anger of Nigerian people on social media, culminating in a paradigm change in 2020 regarding citizens’ cohesion and bravery.
To worsen the situation, the #EndSARS protest occurred when schools had been closed for several months in lieu of the COVID-19 pandemic. Businesses, recreation, events, aviation, hotels, restaurants, had not fully recovered when the protest began. The blockade led to an inability to access time-bound levies, which resulted in demurrage for imported goods and services while production became unprofitable. In retrospect, without quantifiable proofs, it is generally believed that the demonstration, caused gross income loss for all sectors and further plunged the Nigerian economy into recession.
Economic impact of the protest
There are several ways to measure the loss and damage suffered by the Nigerian economy during the EndSARS protest. In the services sector, including trade, banking, insurance, and pension, an assessment of direct and indirect losses is required. The tourism sector needs to determine the decrease in tourist visits and the sum of unused hotel accommodation. This should be in addition to foregone revenues associated with present and future projects by the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission (NIPC).
In the finance sector, assets and liabilities are expected to show the value of time deposits, unearned interests, debts not paid at maturity, etc. State governments may also need to assess their situation in all these sectors as the EndSARS protest has been reported in all 36 states. It is not possible to measure the loss in the destruction process or calculate psychological damages. However, these areas should be used to size the wasted development that only freedom and innovation development can offer. It is essential to determine the direct and indirect impact of the EndSARS protest to have a complete picture of the effects of state violence in Nigeria. The consequences are expected to reverberate in other economies when Nigerian traders and students in neighbouring African countries cannot return to Nigeria.
Economic disruption
The disruption of the normal business conduct, especially in badly hit cities and states, had dire consequences for the economy. Businesses and all trade and commerce activities were drastically reduced in Lagos, Lekki, and other rallying points of protest. Business owners and workers involved in legal commercial activities deserted their workplaces due to threats by the protesters. The situation worsened during the once peaceful protests, leading to hoodlums attacking and burning down businesses. The same situation prevailed in a couple of other states and cities across the country. This development resulted in business insecurity and low business and ethical confidence.
The disruption of regular commercial activities increased unemployment and underemployment. Many businesses almost collapsed during the protest, while some folded up completely. Businesses and shops were looted and their sales ruined. According to a recent PMI report, October manufacturing PMI fell to 48.1 below the benchmark 50 due to the turbulent operating climate from continuation of destructive #EndSARS protest and uncertainty over the Lekki Tollgate incident. Finally, a report from the NIPC shows that Nigeria was in conflict and lost directly invested funds amounting to $15 billion in its economy due to the #EndSARS protest by hoodlums.
Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) experienced unique challenges during the protest. Many stores remained completely unopened, and activities gradually decreased as makeshift markets resumed. Some stores were stopped due to uncertainty associated with the inconsistent intensity of the protest throughout major hubs. Markets that remained closed were those situated along the protest routes. The collapse of law and order led to the repeated burglary of these targeted stores, such as the SPAR and stores at the Adeniran Ogunsanya shopping center.
Many SMEs were directly involved in the manufacturing, display, and sale of products made in Lagos and were subject to daily disruptions in raw materials and finished product and human supply chains to arouse production and commercial activities in the state, in particular. The Central Business Districts and adjacent highways were effectively cordoned off daily by the protesters from October 12, and as such, until November 3, no free movement (and by extension the sale of goods) was possible on Lagos Island. Fashion designers, tailors, established and localized clothing brands, footwear traders, and bespoke materials manufacturers faced adverse impacts due to convoluted or excessive stock inventory as this significantly influences take up and sales of new inventory. Manufacturing activities in Lagos recorded the lowest output in the previous two quarters according to the Q4-2020 Lagos Business Outlook Survey (Lagos BOS).
Investor confidence
The impact of the protest reverberated in foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment. By the end of 2020, Nigeria had only attracted a mere $2.6bn in FDI, whereas the net portfolio investment outflow by the end of September 2020 stood at $175m. Before the protest, net portfolio investment inflow into Nigeria was as high as $4.4bn in the first eight months of the year. However, both indices started to improve from November 2020. The country realized $2.7bn in FDI in 2021, marking a rebound in global investors’ interest in Nigeria. Investors began to be positive about Nigeria once again.
The protest affected investors’ sentiment towards Nigeria. Investors became more cautious and preferred to stay on the sidelines, uncertain about the direction of the protest and its economic implications. The unfortunate Lekki Toll Gate shootings, and the loss of lives that followe d, also raised concerns among investors. However, Nigeria’s economic fundamentals remained relatively strong during the protest. The disruption in economic activities was temporary, and the informal economy, driven largely by trade in goods continued to play a significant role in the Nigerian economy.
Government response
In response to the EndSARS protest, the Nigerian government implemented measures to end the unrest and stabilize the economy. Curfews were imposed in Lagos, Ogun, and Ekiti states, and the Nigeria Immigration Service halted passport processing in some offices. The protests effectively ended on October 20, 2020, with the release of some arrested protesters.
To mitigate the economic impact, the government introduced immediate and long-term economic policies and committed to police reforms. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) took measures to resume commercial activities, and the Federal Ministry of Youths and Sports provided support for affected youths.
Judicial panels of inquiry were established to investigate police brutality. The Vice President highlighted the government’s swift response to protesters’ concerns and revealed that the President visited victims of the protest in late November 2020. The Federal Ministry of Youths and Sports Development also created post-EndSARS empowerment, employment, and social security systems.
Rebuilding initiatives
These ideas have formed the foundation of the actions taken to address the violence and unrest following the protests. The Inspector-General of Police toured the southwestern states of Nigeria most affected by the protest, leading dialogue sessions with key stakeholders affected by police brutalities and the protest, also serving as condolence visits. Initiatives are underway to help rebuild projects and infrastructures (like the police stations and the iconic Lekki tollgate) destroyed during the violent paroxysm triggered by the shooting incident at the Lekki toll.
The Lagos State Governor, Sanwo-Olu, initiated the establishment of a door-to-door healing intergovernmental engagement that involves the federal government and make personal and empathetic gestures to residents affected by the destruction, such as those in the burnt mall at the heart of the protests where dozens of businesses were razed. Many of these business owners were beneficiaries of the previously implemented federal stimulus regime. The government is also beginning efforts to rebuild markets, warehouses, stores, and residential houses that were directly torched.
There are expectations that the battery market area in the Nostrum Bukka-Iponri axis of Mainland local government could be rebuilt with assistance from the multimillion Naira appeals and corrections fund Government set up by the government following the protest outbreak. The wealth of residents is tied to this burnt shopping zone and the warehouses that constitute Nigeria’s last-century duty-free market and bargain memorial; most do not have insurance coverage and are vulnerabele to further economic instability. Additionally, private initiatives are being undertaken to repair the headquarters of the Nigerian Ports Authority, which was targeted by hooligans. Gradually, Nigeria is returning to economic normalcy. However, the densely populated slums of Southwestern Nigeria face rapidly deteriorating support systems. Schools that supply consummate workers to industries have rapaciously bilged; few convene with the rubrics of quality education. Many factories are plagued with child labour. In the darkest days, from Lokoja in today’s Kogi State to Badagry and Epe, citizens live in fear of unidentified groups causing destruction. Property worth billions of Naira was lost: 30 Kings and High Chiefs who gathered in the Osun Osogbo grove with the royal franchise goad of the Ooni estimated the damge to be N55 billion, affecting the political economy of the region. Economists argue that it is early days of recovery of the Nigerian economy. Although there is some optimism about the recovery, financial analysts agreed that the damage to the Nigerian economy is extensive and will take significant time and effort to address.
Therefore, parents, employers, pastors, imams must appeal to their wards/members not to be used by those who want to set us back. We must be mindful of the potential consequences of our actions and work towards finding constructive solutions to our problems. We must engage in dialogue with the government and support reforms and initiatives aimed at promoting economic growth and development.
Conclusion
The EndSARS protest significantly impacted the Nigerian economy. The disruption of economic activities, damage to infrastructure, and loss of investor confidence contributed to the economic downturn. Moving forward, it is crucial to address the underlying issues that may lead to future protests. By doing so, Nigeria can create a more inclusive and sustainable economic environment that benefits all its citizens.
However, Nigeria cannot afford to participate in the “End Bad Government” protest as it will seriously damage the efforts of the current government, especially President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reforms and initiatives. The government is taking steps to address the concerns of Nigerian youth by reforming existing initiatives and introducing new economic policies and programs. Some of these initiatives include:
Restructuring the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) to make it more relevant and beneficial to modern-day Nigeria.
• Implementing programs to support youth entrepreneurship, innovation, and job creation.
• Introducing economic policies to address unemployment, poverty, and inequality.
• Providing access to funding, mentorship, and training for young entrepreneurs and innovators.
•Encouraging public-private partnerships to create opportunities for youth employment and empowerment.
These efforts demonstrate the government’s commitment to addressing young people’s economic disaffection and creating a more inclusive and supportive environment for them to thrive. Initiatives such as the National Youth Investment Fund, the Creative Industry Initiative, and the Nigeria Youth Employment Action Plan are part of these efforts.
Participating in the “End Bad Government” protest would undermine President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reforms and initiatives, damaging efforts to address youth concerns. The government is introducing economic policies and programs to support youth entrepreneurship, innovation, and job creation. However, there is a need for a National Youth Conference to educate and engage Nigerian youth on these reforms and initiatives, ensuring they understand the government’s commitment to their development. Participating in the protest would create economic uncertainty, discourage foreign investors, and hinder economic growth, leading to severe consequences. Instead, Nigerians should engage in dialogue with the government, support reforms, and work towards constructive solutions to build a better future.
A National Youth Conference would provide a platform for youth to:
• Understand the government’s vision and initiatives.
• Provide feedback and suggestions.
•Engage in meaningful dialogue.
•Foster collaboration and cooperation.
This conference would promote inclusivity, transparency, and collective progress, empowering Nigerian youth to contribute to the country’s development.
