Tension as French election campaign ends

Tensions mounted on Friday as France’s election campaign came to an end ahead of a one-day pause and then a historic run-off vote that could paralyse government or see the far right sweep to power.

More than 50 candidates and campaign activists have been physically assaulted during the campaign, the shortest in modern French history, and 30,000 police will be deployed this weekend to head-off trouble.

Friday was the last official day of campaigning with Saturday a day of rest before polls open on Sunday for run-off races in constituencies that failed to choose an outright winner in last month’s first round.

Last month, President Emmanuel Macron plunged his country’s future into doubt by calling a snap legislative poll after his centrist allies were trounced in European elections.

He has explained his shock decision as a chance for French voters to reject a slide towards extremes and to reset parliament.

But, with the midnight end to campaigning just hours away, it was anti-immigration, Eurosceptic leader Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) that had the wind in its sails ahead of Sunday’s second round vote.

– Outright win? –

“I think we have a serious chance of having an absolute majority in the assembly,” Le Pen told broadcasters CNews and Europe1 on Friday, dismissing opinion polls suggesting otherwise as an effort to demotivate her voters.

Far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon of France Unbowed (LFI) also hopes to defy the pollsters and mobilise the 16 million voters who sat out the first round of voting to seize a win.

“We can win,” he insisted.

The latest forecasts predict Le Pen’s party will wield the biggest bloc in the National Assembly, but fall short of the outright majority that could elect Le Pen’s lieutenant Jordan Bardella prime minister.

Macron’s centrist supporters are expected to lose ground to both the RN and an alliance of left-wing parties, leaving France without a stable majority of any stripe for his remaining more than two years in office.

France — a nuclear-armed G7 world power, permanent member of the US Security Council and second-biggest economy in the European Union — could be paralysed, even if it doesn’t fall into the hands of the far right.

A far-right win could hobble French influence in Brussels, where it has been one of the main motors of EU integration, and damage Western support for Ukraine in its fight against a Russian invasion.

Friday’s polls, the last to be published before voting begins, suggest the RN and its far-right allies will win between 200 and 230 seats in the 577-seat assembly, up from the current 88 but not an outright win.

The same pollsters, Elabe and OpinionWay, predict the left-wing New Popular Front will command between 145 and 190 seats and Macron’s centrist camp 120 to 162 — leaving the government in limbo.

For Le Pen, this would be “not chaos but a quagmire, a total standstill”, she said, urging her supporters to turn out.
Outside analysts shared this concern.

“We believe Le Pen’s far right is unlikely to seize power this weekend, but that France will face at least 12 months of rancorous muddling and possibly three years of political chaos,” the Eurasia Group wrote.

On the left, leaders like Marine Tondelier of the Greens envisage a broad alliance of left, centre and centre-right to exclude the far right and agree a coalition on a progressive platform.

– ‘As long as necessary’ –

But first the votes must be cast, and it is not yet clear whether electors whose first-choice candidates were eliminated in the June 30 first round will fall in line behind an anti-RN front.

Polls suggest that only between a third and a half of centrists could switch to the left-wing alliance to fend off the far right, while perhaps two-thirds of left voters could back a centrist.

Macron ally Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, campaigning Friday in Paris, did not rule out that his minority administration might remain in place after polling day for “as long as necessary”.

This might see France through hosting the Olympics summer games from July 26 to August 11, but observers think it is unlikely to hold until the next French presidential election in April 2027.