Nigeria to update economic outlook as NBS begins rebasing GDP, consumer prices
The National Bureau of Statistics has begun the process of rebasing Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Prices Index estimates, according to Statistician-General of the Federation and NBS Chief Executive, Prince Semiu Adeniran.
This exercise, recommended by the United Nations Statistical Commission to be carried out every five years, aims to reflect updated economic conditions. The last rebasing exercise was conducted in 2014, making this the second in nearly a decade.
At the opening of a sensitization workshop for stakeholders on the GDP and CPI Rebasing Exercise in Abuja on Thursday, Adeniran emphasized the importance of accurate and timely data in today’s rapidly changing and interconnected world.
The workshop seeks to engage critical stakeholders, solicit feedback, and ensure that the output meets the needs of all users, providing a more accurate picture of the economy.
While the NBS views these exercises as routine statistical practices, the delays and irregularities in some major statistical activities have made them a significant aspect of data production. Additionally, the informal nature and structure of the economy pose an extra burden for data collection, making these exercises more crucial in statistical production.”
He said, “It is for this reason therefore, that when the decision was made to embark on the rebasing exercise, we made it a cardinal objective to ensure inclusivity, collaboration, and partnership throughout the process of these rebasing exercises.”
Former Chief Executive of National Planning, Ode Ojowu, noted that since the last rebasing in 2014, Nigeria has experienced significant structural changes in various sectors. These include the rapid growth of technology and digital sectors, such as fintech, e-commerce, and digital services. Additionally, the agricultural sector has seen the emergence of new value chains, including agribusiness, processing, commodity exchanges, and export activities, as well as the growth of renewable energy sources like solar power.
The entertainment and creative industry has also witnessed significant growth, with the skit industry, Nollywood, and music production gaining international recognition. Furthermore, urbanization and infrastructural development have led to an increase in the value of real estate. Ojowu emphasized that the rebasing of the CPI and GDP will capture these sectoral shifts.
He commended the NBS for its efforts to provide reliable and timely data to support government and private sector decision-making. However, he noted that rebasing the GDP will result in changes to the current macroeconomic indicators used by the government to inform policymaking.”
He said, “For example, in 2013, some financial indicators were lower than in the pre-rebased period, with the private sector credit to GDP dropping from 37.2 (before rebasing) to 19.7 per cent (after rebasing) in 2013 and expanding to 27.2 per cent in 2023. Broad money supply declined from 35.8 (before rebasing) to 18.9 per cent of GDP (after rebasing) in 2013 and rose to 34.3 per cent of GDP in 2023.
“From the policy perspective, these ‘overnight’ drops looked like a lower private sector credit expansion and constrained financial system development. Similarly, 2014 rebased GDP lowered the fiscal deficit as a ratio of GDP by half from 2.1 to 1.1, but within a decade the government has rapidly expanded the fiscal deficit to the current level of 5.6 per cent of GDP.“With the anticipated rise in the size of the GDP when the current rebasing exercise is concluded, we expect a further lower fiscal deficit to GDP ratio. Will the new fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio be an incentive to the government to ramp up expenditure and slow down the drive to cut down on the high cost of governance?”
According to the former economic adviser to former president Olusegun Obasanjo, “In 2014 the rebased GDP pushed the debt stock-to-GDP ratio down from 23.7 to 12.5 per cent in 2013. But within the decade, the government has again ramped up the ratio to 42.3 per cent. At the current ratio of 42.3 per cent, debt service is threatening the fiscal stability of the state. With the anticipated lower debt-to-GDP after rebasing, could the government be tempted to expand its debt closer to the international threshold? What would such a move imply for the fiscal viability of the state? “
“With the previous rebasing of the GDP, the federal government tax revenue to GDP fell from 11.3 per cent to 6 per cent in 2013. Deploying various tax measures, tax revenue to GDP improved to 10.9 per cent of GDP in 2023, which is still among the lowest in the world. With the anticipated rebasing of the GDP, Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio could drop significantly. Will the government be tempted to then raise taxes to ramp up the tax revenue as a per cent of the GDP?”
He said, “The piece of advice here is that while we may jubilate over the size of the GDP that could reconfirm our position as the biggest economy on the continent of Africa, we will do well to continue to critically examine the composition of the GDP, its ability to create employment, enhance incomes and generate revenue, sector-by-sector.”
